vannevar
/van '*-var / A bogus technological prediction or a
foredoomed engineering concept , especially one that fails by
implicitly assuming that technologies develop linearly ,
incrementally , and in isolation from one another when in fact
the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear , revolutions
are common , and competition is the rule . The prototype was
Vannevar Bush 's prediction of "electronic brains " the size of
the Empire State Building with a Niagara -Falls -equivalent
cooling system for their tubes and relays , a prediction made
at a time when the semiconductor effect had already been
demonstrated . Other famous vannevars have included
magnetic -bubble memory }, {LISP machines }, {videotex }, and a
paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate
limit on areal density for {integrated circuits } that was in
fact less than the routine densities of 5 years later .
Jargon File }]
2000 -02 -29 )vannevar : /
van '@·
var /,
n .
A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering concept ,
esp .
one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies develop linearly ,
incrementally ,
and in isolation from one another when in fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear ,
revolutions are common ,
and competition is the rule .
The prototype was Vannevar Bush '
s prediction of ‘
electronic brains ’
the size of the Empire State Building with a Niagara -
Falls -
equivalent cooling system for their tubes and relays ,
a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor effect had already been demonstrated .
Other famous vannevars have included magnetic -
bubble memory ,
LISP machines ,
videotex ,
and a paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate limit on areal density for ICs that was in fact less than the routine densities of 5 years later .
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